AI coding costs may top developer salaries by 2028

Gartner predicts that by 2028, AI coding costs will surpass the average salary of a developer due to rising token prices. This shift is driven by major providers moving from subscription to usage-based billing, making AI expenses highly unpredictable.

The report notes a lack of transparency in how vendors calculate and charge for token usage, making it hard for tech leaders to manage costs. Senior analyst Nitish Tyagi says companies are moving from pilot to full deployment, and developers prioritize speed and convenience over cutting token use, even as costs rise.

Cost pressure also comes from poor usage management, like uncontrolled AI agents and bloated context windows. Tyagi expects costs to keep climbing as model pricing rises and more developers become heavy users.