GLM-5 Becomes the Only AI Model to Surpass Human Benchmark in Prediction Market Trading with 42.99% Yield

Li Zixuan, global head of Zhipu Z.ai, recently posted on X that GLM-5 is currently the only AI model to surpass the human benchmark in Prediction Arena's prediction market trading, whether due to luck or analytical ability.

Data from Prediction Arena shows GLM-5 achieved a 42.99% yield (14,299.4 USD) on the Kalshi prediction trading platform, exceeding the human benchmark of 12,353.45 USD, with 98 trades executed and a Sharpe ratio of 0.17.

Developed by Arcada Labs, the platform allows AI models to trade predictions on events like weather and cryptocurrencies. While the Sharpe ratio isn't outstanding, GLM-5's surpassing of the human benchmark is symbolic given the early experimental stage.