Tin prices surge 40% in half a year due to AI demand

Driven by the rapid growth of AI, tin—a key material for advanced chip packaging—has seen its price jump from 300,000 yuan per ton last November to around 420,000 yuan now, a 40% increase in six months and a record high. Tin's good conductivity, low melting point, and strong welding stability make it a direct beneficiary of rising computing demand, with AI servers using three times more tin than traditional ones.

While smelting is booming, mining can't keep up. China is the world's top producer and consumer of refined tin, but its ore quality is declining, and about two-thirds of supply is imported. Major producers like Myanmar, Indonesia, and Congo are facing export restrictions and natural disasters, leading to tight supply. Experts expect tin prices to keep rising for the next one to two years.

At current mining rates, global tin reserves will last only 15 years, and China's just 12. Top tin companies are now building recycling loops to recover tin from waste circuit boards, slag, and tailings, boosting recycled supply to offset shortages in raw materials and unstable imports.