Anthropic's $30T Market Vision Surpasses SpaceX, Setting a New Record

Anthropic has proposed a potential market size (TAM) of $30 trillion in its IPO filing, surpassing SpaceX's previous record of $28.5 trillion and becoming the largest market narrative in business history. This estimate is not based on existing software or hardware sales, but rather the total economic value of all work that could be replaced or completed by AI models in the future.

Anthropic plans to go public in fall 2026, aiming to raise $100 billion at a valuation of around $2 trillion. Its confidence stems from strong financial performance: Q2 2026 revenue reached $11.6 billion, with first-time positive adjusted operating profit, and investors predict annualized revenue could hit $100 billion by year-end.

However, Wall Street analysts warn that with data center construction challenges in the U.S. and intensifying competition from lower-cost overseas models, the tolerance for ultra-high valuations in the secondary market is decreasing. Whether this grand vision can convince rational capital remains to be seen after the formal prospectus disclosure in September.