Bill Gates: People Should Get Ready for 20 Years of AI Turbulence

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said in an interview with The Verge that people should get ready for 20 years of disruptive change brought by AI. The period could be very painful, and may split society into two camps: those who embrace new tech and those who reject it.

He previously called AI "the most dangerous thing humanity has ever faced," saying its impact goes beyond nuclear weapons. But he stressed he is not an AI pessimist. He finds AI's progress over the past year amazing, from writing code and spotting security flaws to reasoning in biology.

Gates predicts shortages will drop during this turbulent time, but there will be winners and losers. Robots that can build houses, grow food, and do surgery will become common, and most goods and services will no longer need human workers, so people will need to think about deep questions like philosophy.

He also noted the 20-year timeline could come earlier or later, and predictions for humanoid robots range from two or three years to around eight.