Intel CTO says cutting-edge chip output can only double at best

AI computing power has grown about three times a year over the past decade. But making advanced chips is hitting a ceiling. Intel's CTO Pushkar Ranade said in a podcast that even with plenty of money, global cutting-edge wafer output can't grow ten times. A realistic limit is about double.

He said the limit comes from the whole chip supply chain, not one single part. For example, ASML makes fewer than 100 EUV machines each year and can't expand much before 2030. Intel, TSMC, and SK Hynix all compete for these machines.

Key tools, clean rooms, and factory size are the new bottlenecks. Equipment ordered today takes about 18 months to arrive, so new capacity will land around 2028. All suppliers must grow at the same time, and any shortage holds back final chip output.