Nobel Economist: AI Will Only Replace 5% of Jobs in 10 Years

Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman shared an article by Nobel Economics Prize winner Daron Acemoglu on X, which predicts that only about 5% of human jobs will be replaced by AI in the next 10 years.

Acemoglu estimates that technically, AI could automate about 20% of work. But since companies adopt new tech slowly, the real number will be much lower. He admits it is just an estimate.

He points out that AI models shine in lab settings like coding and medical imaging, but companies see weaker results in the real world. Engineers spend lots of time fixing AI-generated code, and doctors struggle to combine their expertise with AI tools.

Suleyman earlier said most tasks of white-collar jobs like lawyers and accountants would be automated within 12 to 18 months. He later clarified he meant tasks, not jobs — AI just helps people work faster, it does not mean jobs will disappear.