IDC predicts 60% of enterprise AI workloads will run on open-source models by 2028

Research firm IDC has released its FutureScape 2027 predictions, with 250 forecasts across 25 research areas. The report maps out how companies will use AI in the years ahead. By 2028, enterprises will run 60% of their AI workloads on open-source models, using model routing to cut costs and avoid vendor lock-in. Among the world's 2,000 largest companies, the share running most business processes AI-first will jump from 13% today to 60% by 2029. On governance, 70% of these big companies will be able to verify AI agent decisions continuously by 2028, while firms without an emergency stop switch for agents will face 25% higher liability insurance premiums. On jobs, 30% of junior and mid-level execution roles will shift to AI agent oversight by 2029. About half of mid-sized companies expect junior headcount to grow over the next 18 months.