Most Jobs Won’t Be Automated in AGI Era? Yale Scholar: Not Due to AI’s Limits, But Because They’re Not Worth Replacing

Many people worry AGI will replace most jobs, but a new paper by Yale University economics associate professor Pascual Restrepo offers the opposite conclusion: most jobs won’t be automated, not because AI lacks ability, but because these jobs are not essential to economic growth and not worth investing resources to replace.

The paper notes that computing resources will be prioritized for key areas (like nuclear fusion, asteroid defense, etc.), while "supplementary" jobs such as handicrafts, customer service, and hotel services—even if missing—won’t hinder economic expansion, so they may continue to be done by humans.

However, labor’s share in GDP may gradually approach zero, and wealth may concentrate among owners of computing resources. The scholar suggests alleviating inequality through universal income redistribution or making computing resources public assets.