OpenAI's Computing Deals May Total $614 Billion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler estimates that OpenAI's disclosed computing infrastructure deals could add up to $614 billion by 2030. That is well below the $750 billion figure previously reported by The Wall Street Journal. The estimate assumes all known contracts go as planned, but actual spending may drop or be delayed due to data center construction delays or cancellations. Since computing power is usually delivered in batches, yearly spending is expected to peak at $184 billion in 2031. OpenAI's deals with Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon are worth about $300 billion, $250 billion, and $138 billion, usually lasting five to eight years, while its deal with CoreWeave is capped at $22.4 billion. Bernstein says big cloud companies face limited short-term risk, but specialized compute providers relying on costly financing may feel more pressure once the supply crunch eases.